On the occasion of the New Year, we invite you to discover the outlook comments of our new CIO, Steven Prevost, in his “Review of analysis & Perspectives for 2025 ” :
Strategy & Perspectives for 2025
In this early 2025, in the United States, a soft landing is no longer considered the most likely scenario. According to PMI surveys for the services sector and consumer confidence indices, Donald Trump’s election has boosted economic confidence. As we step into 2025, the US economy looks robust.
In Europe, growth is slowing and political upheaval is front-page news.
In France, the new government will be doing its utmost to avoid a no-confidence vote in the next three months. In Germany, snap elections will be held on 23 February. Italy and Spain are doing well and posting healthy economic indicators.
Hopefully, the outlook is bright for China. The PMI index readings remain above 50, boosted by recent economic stimulus. The services and construction sectors are posting solid gains and daily property sales have been positive for the last three months.
(…) Looking back to the underperformance of the European equities markets in 2024, we may say it was driven by three main factors : the economic slowdown, the European political turmoil and external geopolitical risks.
Looking ahead : what’s our vision for 2025 ?
An agenda dominated by Geopolitics
- Trump 2.0, a recipe for volatility?
- 2025: China’s economic awakening?
- Russia-Ukraine : a third and final year of war?
- European politics : acan stability be restored ?
What about fundamentals and the markets?
- Europe will continue to grow in 2025
- A year of interest rate cuts
- Real wage growth remains positive
- Negatives are already priced in for European equities
- The European equity market is not overheating, and is underinvested
We step into 2025 with informed optimism.
The key macroeconomic and geopolitical issues have been identified and integrated into our portfolio allocation. As the year begins to unfold, we remain cautious as to the economic cycle and selective on stocks exposed to France, which could be penalised by lack of confidence. We prefer companies generating significant revenues in the United States. Since the end of November, we take an optimistic view of the upturn in China’s economic momentum. In 2025, we will continue to position the portfolio on long-term growth themes, previously absent from the allocation.
Read the full outlook of analysis & perspectives for 2025 elaborated by our CIO :
“Perspectives 2025 – LFR CIO Outlook”
Disclaimer :
Research document issued in January 2025. Any use or any total or partial reproduction of this document, the logos, brands or any element appearing on this document is prohibited, without prior authorization from La Financière Responsable (LFR). LFR cannot be held liable for any use or total or partial distribution of this document not in accordance with its intended purpose. Any right of translation, adaptation and partial or total reproduction is prohibited without our consent. The data and information contained in this publication is provided for information purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This publication does not constitute an offer or solicitation by any member of LFR to provide investment advice or services or to buy or sell any financial instruments.